Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $60,550$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.4 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,393.6}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 41.9)}}\) (asimptote \(58,393.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,696$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(2.33 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,426.9}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,426.9\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,083$ on 2020-06-21
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $305,803$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(4.39 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{297,250.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 53.8)}}\) (asimptote \(297,250.9\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $42,717$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(7.64 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,719.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.0)}}\) (asimptote \(40,719.7\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $261,767$ on 2020-06-21
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $246,272$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(7.2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{235,055.1}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 35.5)}}\) (asimptote \(235,055.1\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,323$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(8.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,266.6}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(27,266.6\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $67,573$ on 2020-06-21
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $238,499$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(6.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231,953.8}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 42.9)}}\) (asimptote \(231,953.8\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,634$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(7.9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,471.4}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(33,471.4\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $20,972$ on 2020-06-21
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $56,043$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(3.86 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{69,836.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 85.4)}}\) (asimptote \(69,836.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,053$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(747 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,952.3}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 49.0)}}\) (asimptote \(4,952.3\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $50,990$ on 2020-06-21
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $197,008$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(4.87 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{186,718.8}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 40.6)}}\) (asimptote \(186,718.8\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,643$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(7.26 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,616.8}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(28,616.8\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $92,869$ on 2020-06-21
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $49,801$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,056.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(47,056.2\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,109$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,978.7}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,978.7\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $43,506$ on 2020-06-21
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,379$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(5.48 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,971.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 44.1)}}\) (asimptote \(24,971.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,715$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(326 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,666.6}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 43.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,666.6\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $966$ on 2020-06-21