Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Belgium
  • United Kingdom
  • Spain
  • Italy
  • Sweden
  • France
  • Netherlands
  • Ireland
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Estonia
  • Lithuania
  • Hungary
  • Portugal

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $60,550$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.4 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,393.6}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 41.9)}}\) (asimptote \(58,393.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,696$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(2.33 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,426.9}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,426.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,083$ on 2020-06-21

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $305,803$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(4.39 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{297,250.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 53.8)}}\) (asimptote \(297,250.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42,717$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(7.64 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,719.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.0)}}\) (asimptote \(40,719.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $261,767$ on 2020-06-21

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $246,272$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(7.2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{235,055.1}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 35.5)}}\) (asimptote \(235,055.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,323$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(8.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,266.6}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(27,266.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $67,573$ on 2020-06-21

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $238,499$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(6.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231,953.8}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 42.9)}}\) (asimptote \(231,953.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,634$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(7.9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,471.4}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(33,471.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,972$ on 2020-06-21

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $56,043$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(3.86 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{69,836.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 85.4)}}\) (asimptote \(69,836.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,053$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(747 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,952.3}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 49.0)}}\) (asimptote \(4,952.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $50,990$ on 2020-06-21

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $197,008$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(4.87 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{186,718.8}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 40.6)}}\) (asimptote \(186,718.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,643$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(7.26 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,616.8}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(28,616.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $92,869$ on 2020-06-21

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $49,801$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,056.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(47,056.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,109$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,978.7}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,978.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $43,506$ on 2020-06-21

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,379$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(5.48 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,971.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 44.1)}}\) (asimptote \(24,971.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,715$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(326 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,666.6}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 43.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,666.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $966$ on 2020-06-21

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Estonia recovered 89%
Italy recovered 81%
Lithuania recovered 76%
Hungary recovered 54%
Portugal recovered 49%
Belarus recovered 20%
Russia recovered 4%

Estonia⮸

Population $1,326,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,981$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(604 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,859.1}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 33.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,859.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $69$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(25 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{67.6}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 24.0)}}\) (asimptote \(67.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $148$ on 2020-06-21

Lithuania⮸

Population $2,722,289$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,798$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(563 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,649.2}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 28.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,649.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $76$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(18.2 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{76.3}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(76.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $247$ on 2020-06-21

Hungary⮸

Population $9,660,351$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,094$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(867 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(40.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,998.5}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 41.9)}}\) (asimptote \(3,998.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $570$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(95.7 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{554.2}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 45.0)}}\) (asimptote \(554.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $935$ on 2020-06-21

Portugal⮸

Population $10,196,709$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $39,133$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(7.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,871.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(34,871.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,530$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(368 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,484.4}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,484.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,227$ on 2020-06-21